The Schalter

Written by: Andrew Khan

The deregulation of the UK’s gaming industry has led to the creation of an environment where it’s possible to bet on practically anything, from the number of corners in a crunch match between Newi Cefn Druids and Airbus UK to the identity of the next Pope. For many, gambling tarnishes some of the most important areas of the public sphere, turning communal experiences that unite people across cultural and social boundaries into tawdry marketplaces rife with the suspicion of chicanery and corruption. One of the biggest events in the bookmaker’s calendar, however, is an institution that no amount of betting could possibly cheapen, the Eurovision Song Contest.With a history and traditional all of its own and a wide open field, Eurovision might be described as entertainment’s answer to the Grand National - the primary difference being that if Andy Abraham limps home last, few will feel sorry if he is taken out back and shot in the head.

Whether you’re betting the ranch or simply after a decent option in the office sweepstake, take a look at the six golden rules of Eurovision betting.

Rule no. 1: Listen To All The Songs

Betting on a winner when you haven’t seen the full field is madness. While it may be highly unlikely that Andorra is going to come from nowhere to blow away the more fancied opposition, it’s not wholly impossible. Although making your way through forty-three competitors may look like heavy sledding, it’s preferable to sticking your money on Russia and looking on in horror as Finland, a country whose most internationally famous act may well be the Bomfunk MCs, romps home at a canter with Lordi. Trust me.

Rule no.2: Make Sure They Can Sing Live

As most modern pop and rock acts will tell you, Auto-Tune can hide a multitude of sins. Eurovision is a live event and entrants need to be able to perform without pitch correction in front of an audience of six hundred million people, a good proportion of whom will have tuned in to see you make as much of a tit of yourself as Britain’s lamentable honkers Jemini in 2003. Serbia’s 2007 winner, Marija Serifovic, may have looked like a chubby Chinese boy but she had lungs that could blow out a candle at a hundred paces. Similarly, Magdi Rusza of Hungary managed to overcome a pedestrian arrangement and a ridiculously unwieldy title to see Unsubstantial Blues take eighth place on the strength of a convincing Etta James impersonation. The ability to sing doesn’t guarantee coming back with the prize but the inability to sing can prove fatal. There’s little doubt that Serebro’s Song No.1 was the best piece of modern pop on show last year but they proved incapable of holding a tune on the night and finished more than sixty points off the leader.

Make sure that, once you’ve whittled your selections down to five or six, you look for Youtube footage of live vocal performances before parting with your money.

Rule no. 3: Ignore The Bookies

There are two critical things to bear in mind when it comes to reading Eurovision odds. Firstly, patriotic immigrant communities in the UK will back their country regardless of its actual prospects, thus shortening the odds. You won’t get a great price on Ireland, Greece, Turkey, Cyprus or Poland and the fact that they may appear high-up on the list of favourites should not be taken as an indication that they’re red-hot tips. Secondly, the bookmakers know absolutely nothing. Last year’s 2/1 shot, Switzerland, limped home in twentieth place in the semi-final meaning that, for the second consecutive year, the bookies’ favourite was eliminated at the qualifying stage. Trust your own judgement, there’s no point looking to them for suggestions.

Rule no.4: Consider Each-Way Bets

Picking an outright winner is notoriously difficult but there are several countries that are generally good bets for a top four finish. Unless they absolutely balls its up, Russia always has a strong chance of placing, particularly with 2006 runner-up Dima Bilan at the helm. Turkey is another country that’s generally there-or-thereabouts when the final rankings are revealed. Naturally, the odds aren’t great but, if you’re lucky, you might be able to pick up evens on either of them. Each-way betting also means that the 40/1 outsider you have a good feeling about can become a very attractive 10/1 option to land a place on the podium.

Rule no.5: Don’t Place Too Much Weight On Geography

The general consensus in the West is that the splintering of Eastern Europe means the Balkans and Baltics now have a monopoly on potential winners. This is the talk of sore losers and nothing more. Following Serbia’s victory last year, a Swedish newspaper tabulated the results as they would have stood had the countries participating in 1987 been the only ones eligible to vote in 2007 and discovered that they matched the actual standings almost exactly. Neighbours do vote for each other quite frequently, of course, but ‘twas ever thus and tends to even itself out over the course of the night. A winner needs to be able to pick up twelve points from all points of the continent.

Rule no.6: Don’t Put Any Money On The UK

It’s not because of the war in Iraq. It’s not because of our close relationship with the US. It’s not because we can’t dress and are awkward around women. It’s because we constantly enter songs that wouldn’t scrape the top seventy-five in the British charts and react with indignation when the continentals don’t fall to their knees in admiration. The UK’s annual failure to come up with anything even vaguely passable means that betting on a British winner is likely to see precisely the same return as folding a twenty pound note into an origami boat and watching it float merrily down the Thames.

It rather goes without saying that all tips should be taken with a pinch of salt - it’s the unpredictable nature of the contest that makes it so incredibly entertaining. There remains something attractive about placing a wager on Eurovision, however. With all sporting events, luck plays an equal role alongside judgement in the final outcome. The only real variable with Eurovision is the reaction of the audience - essentially, it’s the chance to put yourself in the role of an A&R man for the night, using your critical faculties to predict what will capture the imagination of the continent. Roll on Belgrade ‘08.

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This post is tagged Eurovision, Music