The Schalter

Written by: Stephen Gray

“We are open to dialogue but reality is reality and it has to be accepted – I am the president of the republic of Zimbabwe. Everybody has to accept that if they want dialogue.” – Robert Mugabe

Zimbabwe’s recent election was always set to provoke comment. Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front party found two challengers in the reunited Movement for Democratic Change, headed by Morgan Tsvangirai, and an independent runner, Simba Makoni. So commentators were posed as the two main political parties jostled in a country which, during Mugabe’s near 30 year stint at the top, has seen its average life expectancy fall, the AIDS epidemic worsen and its economy collapse as white-owned agricultural land is forcibly redistributed.

Inaction follows inaction and, three months later, the commentators are still holding their breath.

In June, Tsvangirai announced that the MDC would refuse to participate in a second round, contesting Mugabe’s share of the first round vote amid widespread reports of coerced voting, the disappearance of thousands of MDC supporters and murders of a number of its activists (which it claims has now passed a hundred). Which left Mugabe not even having to think about packing up his desk he had occupied for 28 years, ZANU-PF retaining power by default.

The international community’s hopes were pinned next on the meeting of the African Union. Calls were made for a national unity government that would see Mugabe and Tsvangirai sharing power, but, except for the pluckiness of lobby reporters getting the Zimbabwean leader visibly flustered, little has come from the AU summit. It can, and has, been theorised that a weighty proportion of the 53 member nations is represented by heads of government with questionable electoral credentials. The bigger stink made over former Southern Rhodesia, the more likely, perhaps, that scrutiny will turn to their tinny democracies. Which is by no means to put that charge at every nation’s door; many spoke out to condemn the AU for not going far enough. The result however, has still been more inaction.

And so we pan out: from Harare to the entire African continent to the UN. And, on Friday the 12^th July a Chinese and Russian veto on sanctions. A surprising volte-face for the Russians, who had seemed in favour during the G8 summit, suddenly to not merely vote against sanctions, but to use their power to put a total halt to proposals. Surprising, it is mooted, until one considers the arms exporters of China and Russia who might have found themselves hit by the Zimbabwean arms embargo, their governments choosing this moment to point out that the problem was domestic, not threatening to go international and it isn’t really within the UN’s remit to interfere with internal affairs.

Not that this has put much of a damper on US and British attempts at action. Previous economic sanctions placed on the country, such as the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act, are what Mugabe blames for the nation’s economic woes, rather than the increasing severity of his land reforms since 2000. Still Britain remains vocal for a post-colonial power whose Southern Rhodesia (even named after de Beers founder, the Englishman Cecil Rhodes) declared unilateral independence less than 50 years ago, which has had Mugabe at the helm for most of that time, with the post-colonial vote behind him. Perhaps the Anglo-American alliance learned a lesson about ignoring UN councils decisions on interference after the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan.

So as the gears appear to jam on the international stage, what can happen for Zimbabwe? Neither Mugabe nor Tsvangirai has appeared willing to form a unity, Mugabe resolute that he holds his place rightfully, and Tsvangirai loathe to ratify the former’s election victory by working alongside him. The MDC itself was split into factions until the March election and now seems as steadfast in their beliefs as Mugabe is in his. The sanctions in place for the last seven years have not appeared to dent that resolve of Mugabe’s, and as the situation worsens it is far from clear how he will proceed. Post-apartheid South Africa, not without its problems, is seen as a valuable mediator, but its relations with the MDC, at least, have taken a worrying turn. The (US-based) Zimbabwe Times reports that the Human Science Research Council, based in South Africa, has issued a report warning of a possible outbreak of civil war after the MDC sent activists abroad to train for retaliation against ZANU-PF, a claim the MDC vehemently denies. The best hope, perhaps, is that Mugabe will be forced to admit he cannot pull the country up by its bootlaces, accept the unity government if Tsvangirai can do the same, set wheels in motion for the lifting of sanctions, and maybe let those commentators exhale.

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This post is tagged Mugabe, Zimbabwe